Fractional model of COVID-19 applied to Galicia, Spain and Portugal
Faical Ndairou, Ivan Area, Juan J. Nieto, Cristiana J. Silva, Delfim, F. M. Torres
TL;DR
This paper introduces a fractional compartmental model for COVID-19, emphasizing super-spreader transmissibility, with regional simulations indicating the importance of fractional derivatives in accurately modeling disease spread.
Contribution
It presents a novel fractional model tailored for COVID-19, highlighting the role of super-spreaders and regional differences in transmissibility.
Findings
Fractional derivatives vary across regions, indicating different transmission dynamics.
Super-spreaders significantly impact disease spread modeling.
Fractional models outperform classical models in fitting regional data.
Abstract
A fractional compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease is proposed. Special focus has been done on the transmissibility of super-spreaders individuals. Numerical simulations are shown for data of Galicia, Spain, and Portugal. For each region, the order of the Caputo derivative takes a different value, that is not close to one, showing the relevance of considering fractional models.
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