Analysis and Forecasting of Fire incidence in Davao City

TL;DR

This study analyzes historical fire data in Davao City to develop a forecasting model, revealing no clear trend or seasonality, and emphasizes the need for continuous fire prevention efforts throughout the year.

Contribution

The paper introduces a fire incidence forecasting model based on historical data, highlighting the absence of seasonality and trend, which informs year-round fire prevention strategies.

Findings

Fire incidence shows no trend over time.

No seasonal pattern in fire occurrences.

Fire can surge at any time of the year.

Abstract

Fire incidence is a big problem for every local government unit in the Philippines. The two most detrimental effects of fire incidence are economic loss and loss of life. To mitigate these losses, proper planning and implementation of control measures must be done. An essential aspect of planning and control measures is prediction of possible fire incidences. This study is conducted to analyze the historical data to create a forecasting model for the fire incidence in Davao City. Results of the analyses show that fire incidence has no trend or seasonality, and occurrences of fire are neither consistently increasing nor decreasing over time. Furthermore, the absence of seasonality in the data indicate that surge of fire incidence may occur at any time of the year. Therefore, fire prevention activities should be done all year round and not just during fire prevention month.