Estimating impacts of covid19 on transport capacity in railway networks

TL;DR

This paper assesses the impact of covid19 restrictions on railway network capacity, revealing that only up to 50% of pre-pandemic demand can be met, causing increased congestion and system vulnerability.

Contribution

It introduces a mathematical model to evaluate transport capacity under covid19 restrictions, applied specifically to the Dutch railway network.

Findings

Maximum 50% of pre-covid demand can be transported.

Most trains reach maximum utilization, increasing congestion.

Network becomes more vulnerable and congested under restrictions.

Abstract

Due to the covid19 crisis, public transport (PT) systems are facing new challenges. Regarding restrictive measures such as physical distancing and the successive returning of passengers after the intelligent lockdown, significant lack of transport capacity can be expected. In this paper, the transport capacity of a PT network is assessed, using a mathematical passenger route choice and train scheduling model. By analysing the overall number of transported passengers and the resulting link and train utilization; the networks capabilities of facilitating different demands under capacity restrictions (e.g. physical distancing) are addressed. The analysis is performed on the Dutch railway network. The results show that at most 50% of the pre-covid19 demand can be transported, while most of the trains will be highly utilized reaching their maximum occupation. Thus, significantly more parts of the network are becoming highly utilized, leading to a more congested and vulnerable system than in normal conditions before covid19.