Impact of COVID-19 on City-Scale Transportation and Safety: An Early Experience from Detroit

TL;DR

This study analyzes how COVID-19 affected transportation and safety in Detroit, using diverse data and deep learning to predict cases and assess impacts, providing insights and methods applicable to other cities.

Contribution

The paper introduces a comprehensive analysis of COVID-19's impact on Detroit's transportation and safety, and develops a deep learning model for case prediction using multi-source data.

Findings

COVID-19 led to significant changes in traffic volume and crash rates.

Deep learning model achieved an R^2 of approximately 0.91 in case prediction.

Multiple data features contribute to understanding and forecasting COVID-19 cases.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic brought unprecedented levels of disruption to the local and regional transportation networks throughout the United States, especially the Motor City: Detroit. That was mainly a result of swift restrictive measures such as statewide quarantine and lock-down orders to confine the spread of the virus. This work is driven by analyzing five types of real-world data sets from Detroit related to traffic volume, daily cases, weather, social distancing index, and crashes from January 2019 to June 2020. The primary goal is figuring out the impacts of COVID-19 on the transportation network usage (traffic volume) and safety (crashes) for the Detroit, exploring the potential correlation between these diverse data features, and determining whether each type of data (e.g., traffic volume data) could be a useful factor in the confirmed-cases prediction. In addition, a deep learning model was developed using long short-term memory networks to predict the number of confirmed cases within the next one week. The model demonstrated a promising prediction result with a coefficient of determination (R^2) of up to approximately 0.91. Moreover, in order to provide statistical evaluation measures of confirmed-case prediction and to quantify the prediction effectiveness of each type of data, the prediction results of six feature groups are presented and analyzed. Furthermore, six essential observations with supporting evidence and analyses are presented. The goal of this paper is to present a proposed approach which can be applied, customised, adjusted, and replicated for analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on a transportation network and prediction of the anticipated COVID-19 cases using a similar data set obtained for other large cities in the USA or from around the world.