The Likelihood of Undiscovered Globular Clusters in the Outskirts of the Milky Way

TL;DR

This paper estimates a high probability that several globular clusters remain undiscovered in the outer Milky Way, based on kinematic analysis and orbital simulations, highlighting the potential for future discoveries with deep imaging surveys.

Contribution

It introduces a probabilistic framework to estimate the number of undiscovered globular clusters in the Milky Way's outskirts using orbital dynamics and current observational data.

Findings

73% chance of at least one undiscovered cluster within the Milky Way

Likelihood of two undiscovered clusters is 60-70%

Searches for distant low-metallicity clusters will benefit from upcoming surveys

Abstract

The currently known Galactic globular cluster population extends out to a maximum galactocentric distance of $\sim$ 145 kpc, with the peculiarity that the outermost clusters predominantly have an inward velocity. Orbit averaging finds that this configuration occurs by chance about $6\%$ of the time, suggesting that several globular clusters with positive radial velocities remain undiscovered. We evaluate the expected number of undiscovered clusters at large distances under the assumption that the cluster population has a smooth radial distribution and is in equilibrium within the Milky Way's virial radius. By comparing the present day kinematic properties of outer clusters to random orbital configurations of the Galactic globular cluster system through orbit averaging, we estimate a likelihood of $73\%$ of there being at least one undiscovered globular cluster within the Milky Way. This estimate assumes the current population is complete out to 50 kpc, and increases to $91\%$ if the population is complete out to 150 kpc. The likelihood of there being two undiscovered clusters is between $60\%$ and $70\%$, with the likelihood of there being three undiscovered clusters being on the order of $50\%$. The most likely scenario is that the undiscovered clusters are moving outwards, which results in the outer cluster population being consistent with an equilibrium state. Searches for distant and possibly quite low concentration and very low metallicity globular clusters will be enabled with upcoming deep imaging surveys.