Cons{\'e}quences du changement climatique pour les maladies {\`a} transmission vectorielle et impact en assurance de personnes

TL;DR

This paper assesses how climate change may increase the risk of mosquito-borne virus epidemics in France, projecting significant health impacts including potential deaths due to rising temperatures and mosquito proliferation.

Contribution

It quantifies the future epidemic risk of Aedes Albopictus transmitted viruses in France using temperature data and mathematical modeling, highlighting potential mortality increases.

Findings

Nearly 2,000 deaths per year could occur by 2040 due to mosquito-borne viruses.

The probability of epidemics varies across regions in France.

Climate change significantly elevates health risks from vector-borne diseases.

Abstract

Climate change, which is largely linked to human activities, is already having a considerable impact on our societies. Based on current trends, climate change is expected to accelerate in the coming decades. Beyond its impact on the pace of natural disasters (floods, hurricanes, etc.), climate change may have catastrophic consequences for human life and health. One of the concerns is the increase in the transmission of viruses spread by mosquitoes. Indeed, rising temperatures have a direct positive impact on the viability of mosquitoes in ecosystems, leading to their abundance and thus the risk of exposure of human populations to these pathogens. This study quantifies the consequences of global warming on the risk of epidemics of viruses transmitted by the Aedes Albopictus mosquito in metropolitan France. This mosquito, which is a vector for the Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika viruses, among others, arrived in mainland France in 2004 and has since spread throughout the country. Thanks to the association previously established between the probability of the presence of the mosquito and the average temperature combined with a mathematical model, the probability of an epidemic and the number of people who could be infected and die during a season in each department are estimated. If there is a high degree of heterogeneity in metropolitan France, nearly 2,000 deaths per year could be expected by 2040.