Power-law multi-wave model for COVID-19 propagation in countries with nonuniform population density

TL;DR

This paper introduces a power-law multi-wave model for COVID-19 spread in large countries with uneven population density, capturing multiple independent waves and providing accurate short-term forecasts.

Contribution

The paper presents a novel phenomenological model that accounts for spatial differentiation and multiple waves of COVID-19 spread based on population density.

Findings

Model accurately predicted total cases within 3% over 3 months

COVID-19 spreads in multiple independent waves in different regions

Power-law dependence describes wave intensities effectively

Abstract

The phenomenological mathematical model of COVID-19 spreading is proposed for large countries with geographical differentiation of population density. According to the model COVID-19 spreading takes the form of several spatio-temporal waves developing almost independently and simultaneously in areas with different population density. The intensity of each wave is described by a power-law dependence. The parameters of dependence are determined by real statistical data at the initial stage of the disease spread. The results of the model simulation were verified using statistical data for the Republic of Belarus. Based on the developed model, a forecast calculation was made at the end of May, 2020. The accuracy of forecasting the total number of cases for a period of 3 months in the proposed approach was about 3 percent.