Stochastic dynamics of storm surge with stable noise
Joshua Frankie Rayo, Vena Pearl Bo\~ngolan

TL;DR
This paper introduces a stochastic model for storm surge prediction incorporating stable noise to account for external forces, analyzing its effects on surge height simulation accuracy and sensitivity during different tide conditions.
Contribution
The study extends existing storm surge models by integrating uncorrelated alpha-stable noise, exploring its impact on surge height simulation and model sensitivity to external forces.
Findings
Stochastic model sensitive to external forces during low tide.
No significant overall improvement over deterministic models.
Large jumps occur with smaller alpha, requiring very small noise scale for stability.
Abstract
The Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating Nearshore Waves (SWAN) coupled model is modified to include a stochastic term in the shallow water equations that represents random external forces from debris carried by surge and short-term local scale atmospheric fluctuations. We added -stable noise, uncorrelated in space and time, in the forcing terms of the coupled model. Inputs to the model are unstructured computational mesh derived from topography and bathymetry, land cover classification, tidal potential constituents and atmospheric forcing. The model simulated surge height of around five meters rushing at four meters per second near Tacloban City downtown. Underestimation of simulated surge height is expected with use of bare earth model and absence of fluid sources on the governing equations, while overestimation of simulated peak height also occurs due to presence of…
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Taxonomy
TopicsTropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing
