Analysis of magnetic polarities in active regions for the prediction of solar flares

TL;DR

This study develops a predictive model for large solar flares based on magnetic properties of active regions, analyzing sunspot evolution and magnetic polarity to improve space weather forecasting.

Contribution

The paper introduces a new predictive model for high-magnitude solar flares using magnetic and sunspot data, confirming previous findings about flare recurrence.

Findings

Magnetic polarity and sunspot analysis can predict flare occurrence.

Sunspot evolution correlates with flare activity.

Model confirms potential for flare prediction within hours.

Abstract

Solar active regions and the processes that occur in them have been extensively studied and analyzed and many types of models and characterizations have been proposed for the occurrence of different eruptive events that take place in the solar atmosphere. The most characteristic of these regions are those that have opposite magnetic polarity, which, in their majority, generate explosive events such as the so-called solar flares. The flares are intense explosions occurring in the solar atmosphere with adverse effects on the Earth and the technology developed by humans, and they are also determining factors in the so-called space weather. For this reason, attempts have been made to predict the occurrence of these events. In the present study, we developed a predictive model of solar flares higher than M5 based on the articles proposed by Korsos, et al. (2014, 2015) using the relationship between the flares and the bipolar active regions. The analysis took into account the areas of the umbrae of opposite polarity, their average magnetic field, and the magnetic barycenter from each sunspot in the region for a sample of three active regions to find the temporal variation due to the evolution of the sunspots, thus confirming previous results reported in the literature. We made a statistical analysis to determine whether after a flare occurs, another can arise in the subsequent hours.