Action-based distribution function modelling for constraining the shape of the Galactic dark matter halo

TL;DR

This study uses Gaia DR2 data and a Bayesian approach to model the Galactic dark matter halo, finding it to be nearly spherical and constraining the local dark matter density, challenging some cosmological simulation predictions.

Contribution

First to estimate the 3D density profile of the Milky Way's dark matter halo using RR Lyrae stars with a comprehensive Bayesian model accounting for observational effects.

Findings

Dark matter halo is nearly spherical with q > 0.963

Local dark matter density is approximately 0.342 GeV/cm^3

Results challenge cosmological simulation predictions of more oblate halos

Abstract

We estimate the 3D density profile of the Galactic dark matter (DM) halo within $r \lesssim 30$ kpc from the Galactic centre by using the astrometric data for halo RR Lyrae stars from Gaia DR2. We model both the stellar halo distribution function and the Galactic potential, fully taking into account the survey selection function, the observational errors, and the missing line-of-sight velocity data for RR Lyrae stars. With a Bayesian MCMC method, we infer the model parameters, including the density flattening of the DM halo $q$, which is assumed to be constant as a function of radius. We find that 99\% of the posterior distribution of $q$ is located at $q>0.963$, which strongly disfavours a flattened DM halo. We cannot draw any conclusions as to whether the Galactic DM halo at $r \lesssim 30$ kpc is prolate, because we restrict ourselves to axisymmetric oblate halo models with $q\leq1$. Our result is inconsistent with predictions from cosmological hydrodynamical simulations that advocate more oblate ($\langle{q}\rangle \sim0.8 \pm 0.15$) DM halos within $\sim 15\%$ of the virial radius for Milky-Way-sized galaxies. An alternative possibility, based on our validation tests with a cosmological simulation, is that the true value $q$ of the Galactic halo could be consistent with cosmological simulations but that disequilibrium in the Milky Way potential is inflating our measurement of $q$ by 0.1-0.2. As a by-product of our analysis, our model constrains the DM density in the Solar neighbourhood to be $\rho_{\mathrm{DM},\odot} = (9.01^{+0.18}_{-0.20})\times10^{-3}M_\odot \mathrm{pc}^{-3} = 0.342^{+0.007}_{-0.007}$ $\;\mathrm{GeV} \mathrm{cm}^{-3}$.