Forecasting fuel combustion-related CO$_2$ emissions by a novel continuous fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model with Grey Wolf Optimizer

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model optimized with Grey Wolf Optimizer to accurately forecast China's fuel combustion-related CO₂ emissions, outperforming existing models and aiding policy decisions.

Contribution

A new flexible fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model with variable derivative order and GWO optimization is proposed for improved CO₂ emission forecasting.

Findings

The model outperforms benchmark models in accuracy.

Forecasts China's CO₂ emissions to reach 10039.80 Mt by 2023.

Provides policy suggestions based on emission trend predictions.

Abstract

Foresight of CO$_2$ emissions from fuel combustion is essential for policy-makers to identify ready targets for effective reduction plans and further to improve energy policies and plans. For the purpose of accurately forecasting the future development of China's CO$_2$ emissions from fuel combustion, a novel continuous fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model is developed in this paper. The fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model already in place is known that has a fixed first-order derivative that impairs the predictive performance to some extent. To address this problem, in the newly proposed model, a flexible variable is introduced into the order of derivative, freeing it from integer-order accumulation. In order to further improve the performance of the newly proposed model, a meta-heuristic algorithm, namely Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO), is determined to the emerging coefficients. To demonstrate the effectiveness, two real examples and China's fuel combustion-related CO$_2$ emissions are used for model validation by comparing with other benchmark models, the results show the proposed model outperforms competitors. Thus, the future development trend of fuel combustion-related CO$_2$ emissions by 2023 are predicted, accounting for 10039.80 Million tons (Mt). In accordance with the forecasts, several suggestions are provided to curb carbon dioxide emissions.