On the abrupt change of the maximum likelihood state in a simplified stochastic thermohaline circulation system

TL;DR

This paper investigates how the maximum likelihood state in a simplified stochastic thermohaline circulation model exhibits abrupt jumps during transitions, providing insights into sudden climate changes observed in climate records.

Contribution

It demonstrates that the maximum likelihood state undergoes jumps during metastable state transitions, offering a new explanation for abrupt climate changes.

Findings

Maximum likelihood state jumps during transitions

Explains mechanisms of abrupt climate change

Provides a simplified model for climate dynamics

Abstract

The maximum likelihood state for a simplified stochastic thermohaline circulation model is investigated. It is shown that a jump occurs for the maximum likelihood state during transitions between two metastable states. The jump helps to explain the mechanism of the abrupt change in the climate systems as revealed by various climate records.