On the possibility to probe the flare productivity of an active region on the early stage of emergence

TL;DR

This study investigates early-stage magnetic parameters of active regions to determine their potential for future solar flares, finding flux emergence rate as a key predictor of flare productivity.

Contribution

It introduces the flux emergence rate as a reliable early indicator of an active region’s potential to produce strong flares, unlike the magnetic power spectrum index.

Findings

Flux emergence rate correlates strongly with flare productivity (r=0.74).

Magnetic power spectrum index increases during emergence but does not predict flares.

High flux emergence rate is necessary for future strong flares.

Abstract

A long-standing problem is to predict the future flare productivity of an active region (AR) when it is on the stage of early emergence. The aim of this study is to probe two parameters of the photospheric magnetic field, both derived during the emergence phase of an AR, and to compare them with the flare productivity of the well-developed AR. The parameters are: (i) the index of the magnetic power spectrum (the slope of the spectrum) on the stage of emergence, and (ii) the flux emergence rate. Analysis of 243 emerging ARs showed that the magnetic power index increases from values typical for quiet-Sun regions to the values typical for mature ARs within a day while the emergence proceeds for several days; frequently, after the increase, the value of the power index undulates around some mean value with fluctuations being several time less than the growth of the power index during the emergence onset. For a subset of 34 flare-productive ARs we found no correlation between the power spectrum index at the stage of emergence and flare index derived from the entire interval of the AR's presence on the disc. At the same time, the flux emergence rate correlates well with the flare index (the Pearson's correlation coefficient is 0.74). We conclude that high flux emergence rate is a necessary condition for an AR to produce strong flares in the future, and so, the flux emergence rate can be used to probe the future flare productivity of the AR.