Implications of Delay in Compulsory Mask Wearing -- A What-if Analysis

TL;DR

This study models how delays in implementing compulsory mask mandates affect COVID-19 spread, highlighting a critical window of 80-100 days where mask enforcement significantly reduces infections, but beyond 100 days, its impact diminishes.

Contribution

The paper introduces a modified SEIR model to analyze the timing effects of mask mandates on COVID-19 transmission, identifying a critical delay threshold for policy effectiveness.

Findings

Mask mandates within 80-100 days significantly reduce infections.

Delays beyond 100 days show minimal impact of mask enforcement.

Strict compliance enhances the effectiveness of early mask policies.

Abstract

We investigate the impact of the delay in compulsory mask wearing on the spread of COVID-19 in the community, set in the Singapore context. By using modified SEIR-based compartmental models, we focus on macroscopic population-level analysis of the relationships between the delay in compulsory mask wearing and the maximum infection, through a series of scenario-based analysis. Our analysis suggests that collective masking can meaningfully reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in the community, but only if implemented within a critical time window of approximately before 80 - 100 days delay after the first infection is detected, coupled with strict enforcement to ensure compliance throughout the duration. We also identify what is called a point of no return, a delay threshold of about 100 days that results in masking enforcement having little significant impact on the Maximum Infected Values.