Decision Support for the Quickest Detection of Critical COVID-19 Phases

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new mathematical model and a sequential detection test called MAST to identify the critical onset of COVID-19 outbreaks quickly, aiding timely decision-making for restrictive measures.

Contribution

The paper develops the MAST sequential test based on quickest detection theory, tailored for COVID-19, and demonstrates its effectiveness on real-world data for early outbreak detection.

Findings

MAST effectively balances detection delay and risk.

Detection delay ranges from a few days to three weeks.

Risk scales exponentially with detection delay.

Abstract

During the course of an epidemic, one of the most challenging tasks for authorities is to decide what kind of restrictive measures to introduce and when these should be enforced. In order to take informed decisions in a fully rational manner, the onset of a critical regime, characterized by an exponential growth of the contagion, must be identified as quickly as possible. Providing rigorous quantitative tools to detect such an onset represents an important contribution from the scientific community to proactively support the political decision makers. In this paper, leveraging the quickest detection theory, we propose a mathematical model of the COVID-19 pandemic evolution and develop decision tools to rapidly detect the passage from a controlled regime to a critical one. A new sequential test -- referred to as MAST (mean-agnostic sequential test) -- is presented, and demonstrated on publicly available COVID-19 infection data from different countries. Then, the performance of MAST is investigated for the second pandemic wave, showing an effective trade-off between average decision delay $\Delta$ and risk $R$, where $R$ is inversely proportional to the time required to declare the need to take unnecessary restrictive measures. Ideally, the decision mechanism should react as quick as possible for a given level of risk. We find that all the countries share the same behaviour in terms of quickest detection, specifically the risk scales exponentially with the delay, $R \sim \exp{(-\omega \Delta)}$, where $\omega$ depends on the specific nation. For a reasonably small risk level, say, one possibility in ten thousand (i.e., unmotivated implementation of countermeasures every 27 years, on the average), the proposed algorithm detects the onset of the critical regime with delay between a few days to three weeks, much earlier than when the exponential growth becomes evident.