Monotonicity properties arising in a simple model of Wolbachia invasion for wild mosquito populations

TL;DR

This paper introduces a simplified two-dimensional model of Wolbachia invasion in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, capturing key biological features and using monotone dynamical systems theory to analyze invasion thresholds and control strategies.

Contribution

It develops a reduced, biologically relevant model of Wolbachia spread that enables mathematical analysis of invasion thresholds and control methods for mosquito populations.

Findings

Existence of an invariant threshold manifold for Wolbachia invasion

Guidelines for single and periodic release strategies

Numerical simulations with wMelPop strain parameters

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a simplified bidimensional Wolbachia infestation model in a population of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, preserving the main features associated with the biology of this species that can be found in higher-dimensional models. Namely, our model represents the maternal transmission of the Wolbachia symbiont, expresses the reproductive phenotype of cytoplasmic incompatibility, accounts for different fecundities and mortalities of infected and wild insects, and exhibits the bistable nature leading to the so-called principle of competitive exclusion. Since Wolbachia-based biocontrol is now accepted as an ecologically friendly and potentially cost-effective method for prevention and control of dengue and other arboviral infections, it is essential to have reduced models with the main biological characteristics of Aedes aegypti in the presence of Wolbachia-carriers because such models help to simplify the mathematical analysis for determining appropriate biocontrol strategies. Using tools borrowed from monotone dynamical system theory, in the proposed model, we prove the existence of an invariant threshold manifold that allows us to provide practical recommendations for performing single and periodic releases of Wolbachia-carrying mosquitoes, seeking the eventual elimination of wild insects that are capable of transmitting infections to humans. We illustrate these findings with numerical simulations using parameter values corresponding to the wMelPop strain of Wolbachia that is considered the best virus blocker but induces fitness loss in its carriers.