Influence of State Reopening Policies in COVID-19 Mortality

TL;DR

This study analyzes how different US state reopening policies during COVID-19 affected mortality rates, highlighting the impact of mask mandates and policy timing on death counts.

Contribution

It compares actual COVID-19 death data with hypothetical scenarios to evaluate the effects of reopening policies and mask mandates.

Findings

Reopening policies significantly influenced death tolls.

Mask mandates correlated with larger reductions in death counts.

States with earlier or stricter measures had fewer deaths.

Abstract

By the end of May 2020, all states in the US have eased their COVID-19 mitigation measures. Different states adopted markedly different policies and timing for reopening. An important question remains in how the relaxation of mitigation measures is related to the number of casualties. To address this question, we compare the actual data to a hypothetical case in which the mitigation measures are left intact using a projection of the data from before mitigation measures were eased. We find that different states have shown significant differences in the number of deaths, possibly due to their different policies and reopening schedules. Our study provides a gauge for the effectiveness of the approaches by different state governments and can serve as a guide for implementing best policies in the future. It also indicates that the face mask mandate seems to correlate with the change in the death count more dramatically than other measures.