Shadow economy and populism-risk and uncertainty factors for establishing low-carbon economy of Balkan countries-case study for Bulgaria

TL;DR

This paper develops a scenario model analyzing how shadow economy and populism influence the transition to a low-carbon economy in Balkan countries, considering climate change perceptions and uncertainties.

Contribution

It introduces a transdisciplinary model incorporating economic, social, and climate factors to assess risks and uncertainties in establishing low-carbon economies in transition countries.

Findings

Shadow economy and populism significantly impact low-carbon policy implementation.

Public perception and media influence shape climate change understanding.

Geographical and cultural factors contribute to policy risks and uncertainties.

Abstract

The main purpose of the current publication is to formulate a scenario model for analysis of the opportunities for low-carbon economy establishment in the countries with transition economies.The model studies risk factors such as shadow economy level and populism based on the implementation and development of Balkan countries economic policy and at the same time shows future climate changes tendencies and uncertainties of climate models.A transdisciplinary approach is implemented in the study. Climate change perception and understanding about low-carbon economy are examined through the public opinion and analysis of mass-media publications.The results of the research are important in order to clarify the multicultural divergences as a factor for risk and uncertainty in the implementation process of the policy for climate change.In this way geographical aspects of risk and uncertainty, which are not only related to the economic development of the relevant countries, could be brought out.