Estimating rate-induced tipping via asymptotic series and a Melnikov-like method

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel approach combining asymptotic series and a Melnikov-like method to predict rate-induced tipping points in scalar differential equations, providing a practical way to identify critical transitions.

Contribution

It develops a new analytical framework for estimating rate-induced tipping using asymptotic series and a Melnikov-inspired technique, applicable on finite time intervals.

Findings

Asymptotic series effectively approximate solution pairs near tipping points.

The Melnikov-like method accurately estimates the critical rate for tipping.

The approach simplifies detection of tipping points without full long-term simulations.

Abstract

The paper deals with the study of rate-induced tipping in asymptotically autonomous scalar ordinary differential equations. We prove that, in such a tipping scenario, a solution which limits at a hyperbolic stable equilibrium of the past limit-problem loses uniform asymptotic stability and coincides with a solution which limits at a hyperbolic unstable equilibrium of the future limit-problem. We use asymptotic series to approximate such pairs of solutions and characterize the occurrence of a rate-induced tipping by using only solutions calculable on finite time intervals. Moreover, we show that a Melnikov-inspired method employing the asymptotic series allows to asymptotically approximate the tipping point.