Impact of climate change on surface stirring and transport in the Mediterranean Sea

TL;DR

This study uses a high-resolution climate model and Network Theory to project increased surface stirring and transport heterogeneity in the Mediterranean Sea due to climate change, impacting marine spatial planning.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of Network Theory to analyze climate change effects on mesoscale ocean stirring and transport in the Mediterranean.

Findings

Horizontal stirring and kinetic energies are projected to increase.

Rearrangement of hydrodynamic provinces with more heterogeneity.

Enhanced mixing within provinces is expected.

Abstract

Understanding how climate change will affect oceanic fluid transport is crucial for environmental applications and human activities. However, a synoptic characterization of the influence of climate change on mesoscale stirring and transport in the surface ocean is missing. To bridge this gap, we exploit a high-resolution, fully-coupled climate model of the Mediterranean basin using a Network Theory approach. We project significant increases of horizontal stirring and kinetic energies in the next century, likely due to increments of available potential energy. The future evolution of basin-scale transport patterns hint at a rearrangement of the main hydrodynamic provinces, defined as regions of the surface ocean that are well-mixed internally but with minimal cross-flow across their boundaries. This results in increased heterogeneity of province sizes and stronger mixing in their interiors. Our approach can be readily applied to other oceanic regions, providing information for the present and future marine spatial planning.