Deep Reinforcement Learning in Electricity Generation Investment for the Minimization of Long-Term Carbon Emissions and Electricity Costs

TL;DR

This paper applies deep reinforcement learning to optimize long-term electricity investment strategies in the UK and Ireland, aiming to minimize costs and carbon emissions amid uncertainties over decades.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of the DDPG algorithm to model and optimize renewable energy investments in electricity markets over long time horizons.

Findings

Renewable energy investments reduce costs and emissions.

DDPG effectively learns optimal electricity mixes.

Transition to wind, solar, and wave energy is advantageous.

Abstract

A change from a high-carbon emitting electricity power system to one based on renewables would aid in the mitigation of climate change. Decarbonization of the electricity grid would allow for low-carbon heating, cooling and transport. Investments in renewable energy must be made over a long time horizon to maximise return of investment of these long life power generators. Over these long time horizons, there exist multiple uncertainties, for example in future electricity demand and costs to consumers and investors. To mitigate for imperfect information of the future, we use the deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) deep reinforcement learning approach to optimize for a low-cost, low-carbon electricity supply using a modified version of the FTT:Power model. In this work, we model the UK and Ireland electricity markets. The DDPG algorithm is able to learn the optimum electricity mix through experience and achieves this between the years of 2017 and 2050. We find that a change from fossil fuels and nuclear power to renewables, based upon wind, solar and wave would provide a cheap and low-carbon alternative to fossil fuels.