Novel Compositional Data's Grey Model for Structurally Forecasting Arctic Crude Oil Import

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new compositional data grey model combined with traditional grey modeling and differential evolution to forecast Arctic crude oil imports, demonstrating improved short-term accuracy and revealing increasing Arctic imports for China.

Contribution

A novel compositional data grey model is developed, integrating Aitchison geometry and differential evolution for robust short-term forecasting of Arctic crude oil imports.

Findings

The model outperforms existing models in short-term forecasting accuracy.

China's crude oil imports from the Arctic are projected to increase significantly.

The model confirms the changing structure of China's crude oil import sources.

Abstract

The reserve of crude oil in the Arctic area is abundant. Ice melting is making it possible to have intermediate access to the Arctic crude oil and its transportation. A novel compositional data's grey model is proposed in this paper to structurally forecast Arctic crude oil import. Firstly, the general accumulative operation sequence of multivariate compositional data is defined according to Aitchison geometry, then obtaining the novel model with the form of the compositional data vectors. Secondly, this paper studies the least square parameter estimation of the model. The novel model is deduced and selected as the time-response expression of the solution. Thirdly, this paper infuses the novel model with traditional grey model to improve its robustness. Differential Evolution algorithm is introduced to determine the optimal value of the general matrix. Lastly, two validation examples are provided for confirming the effectiveness of the novel model by comparing it with other existing models, before being employed to forecast the crude oil import structure in China. The results show that the novel model provides better performance in all crude oil cases in short-term forecasting. Therefore, by using the new model, China's development parameter is 0.5214 and Determination Factor of the novel model is 0.5999, which means that the crude oil import structure of China is being changed. Specifically, the amount of crude oil imported from the Arctic area is obviously increasing in the next 6 years, showing sufficient proof of the edge owned by the Arctic area: abundant crude oil reserves and shortening transportation distance.