The Hot Hand and Its Effect on the NBA

TL;DR

This study investigates the hot hand phenomenon in NBA basketball using modern data, finding limited evidence of streakiness in gameplay but some behavioral changes in players after shots.

Contribution

It expands previous research by analyzing larger datasets, examining league-wide trends, and assessing the power of simulations to detect hot hand effects.

Findings

No strong evidence of hot hand in game-play

Weak evidence of hot hand in free throws

Some players change behavior after previous shots

Abstract

This paper aims to revisit and expand upon previous work on the "hot hand" phenomenon in basketball, specifically in the NBA. Using larger, modern data sets, we test streakiness of shooting patterns and the presence of hot hand behavior in free throw shooting, while going further by examining league-wide hot hand trends and the changes in individual player behavior. Additionally, we perform simulations in order to assess their power. While we find no evidence of the hot hand in game-play and only weak evidence in free throw trials, we find that some NBA players exhibit behavioral changes based on the outcome of their previous shot.