Observer-based predictor for a SIR model with delays

TL;DR

This paper introduces an observer-based predictor for a delayed SIR epidemic model, enhancing prediction accuracy and control performance by compensating for delays using Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals.

Contribution

It develops a novel predictor for delayed SIR models with stability guarantees and demonstrates improved control performance.

Findings

Predictor nearly matches delay-free system performance.

Stability ensured via Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals.

Effective in combination with time-optimal control.

Abstract

We propose an observer for a SIR epidemic model. The observer is then uplifted into a predictor to compensate for time delays in the input and the output. Tuning criteria are given for tuning gains of the predictor, while the estimation-error stability is ensured using Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals. The predictor's performance is evaluated in combination with a time-optimal control. We show that the predictor nearly recovers the performance level of the delay-free system.