A computational tool for trend analysis and forecast of the COVID-19 pandemic

TL;DR

This paper introduces a computational tool that models and forecasts COVID-19 trends globally, providing an automated, interpretable, and adaptable method to support public health decision-making.

Contribution

It presents a straightforward, automated modeling approach and a novel trend analysis method, along with a freely available tool for real-time COVID-19 data analysis and forecasting.

Findings

Effective trend analysis for multiple regions

Accurate predictions of peak and stabilization dates

Tool supports decision-making for public health authorities

Abstract

Purpose: This paper proposes a methodology and a computational tool to study the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the world and to perform a trend analysis to assess its local dynamics. Methods: Mathematical functions are employed to describe the number of cases and demises in each region and to predict their final numbers, as well as the dates of maximum daily occurrences and the local stabilization date. The model parameters are calibrated using a computational methodology for numerical optimization. Trend analyses are run, allowing to assess the effects of public policies. Easy to interpret metrics over the quality of the fitted curves are provided. Country-wise data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) concerning the daily number of cases and demises around the world are used, as well as detailed data from Johns Hopkins University and from the Brasil.io project describing individually the occurrences in United States counties and in Brazilian states and cities, respectively. U. S. and Brazil were chosen for a more detailed analysis because they are the current foci of the pandemic. Results: Illustrative results for different countries, U. S. counties and Brazilian states and cities are presented and discussed. Conclusion: The main contributions of this work lie in (i) a straightforward model of the curves to represent the data, which allows automation of the process without requiring interventions from experts; (ii) an innovative approach for trend analysis, whose results provide important information to support authorities in their decision-making process; and (iii) the developed computational tool, which is freely available and allows the user to quickly update the COVID-19 analyses and forecasts for any country, United States county or Brazilian state or city present in the periodic reports from the authorities.