A markovian random walk model of epidemic spreading

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Markovian random walk model to analyze epidemic spreading on graphs, deriving bounds for reproduction numbers and simulating infection dynamics, highlighting the potential of random walk approaches in epidemiology.

Contribution

The paper develops a novel Markovian random walk framework for epidemic modeling, providing bounds on reproduction numbers and simulating infection spread on graphs.

Findings

Derived an upper bound for reproduction numbers.

Simulated space-time evolution of infection patterns.

Highlighted the potential of random walk models in epidemic studies.

Abstract

We analyze the dynamics of a population of independent random walkers on a graph and develop a simple model of epidemic spreading. We assume that each walker visits independently the nodes of a finite ergodic graph in a discrete-time markovian walk governed by his specific transition matrix. With this assumption, we first derive an upper bound for the reproduction numbers. Then we assume that a walker is in one of the states: susceptible, infectious, or recovered. An infectious walker remains infectious during a certain characteristic time. If an infectious walker meets a susceptible one on the same node there is a certain probability for the susceptible walker to get infected. By implementing this hypothesis in computer simulations we study the space-time evolution of the emerging infection patterns. Generally, random walk approaches seem to have a large potential to study epidemic spreading and to identify the pertinent parameters in epidemic dynamics.