Predicting Short-term Mobile Internet Traffic from Internet Activity using Recurrent Neural Networks

TL;DR

This paper compares LSTM and GRU neural networks for short-term mobile Internet traffic prediction using Milan's telecom data, highlighting LSTM's superior performance in capturing complex patterns.

Contribution

It demonstrates the effectiveness of deep learning models, especially LSTM, in modeling mobile Internet traffic and seasonality with high accuracy.

Findings

LSTM outperforms GRU in traffic prediction accuracy.

Deep learning models effectively capture daily and seasonal patterns.

Clustering reveals performance variations across city regions.

Abstract

Mobile network traffic prediction is an important input in to network capacity planning and optimization. Existing approaches may lack the speed and computational complexity to account for bursting, non-linear patterns or other important correlations in time series mobile network data. We compare the performance of two deep learning architectures - Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) - for predicting mobile Internet traffic using two months of Telecom Italia data for the metropolitan area of Milan. K-Means clustering was used a priori to group cells based on Internet activity and the Grid Search method was used to identify the best configurations for each model. The predictive quality of the models was evaluated using root mean squared error. Both Deep Learning algorithms were effective in modeling Internet activity and seasonality, both within days and across two months. We find variations in performance across clusters within the city. Overall, the LSTM outperformed the GRU in our experiments.