Fractal-based modeling and spatial analysis of urban form and growth: a case study of Shenzhen in China

TL;DR

This study analyzes Shenzhen's urban growth using fractal dimension modeling, revealing a logistic growth pattern similar to Western cities and indicating land resource limits, with differences from northern Chinese cities.

Contribution

It applies fractal analysis and logistic modeling to Shenzhen's urban growth, demonstrating a common growth pattern and highlighting regional differences in Chinese urban evolution.

Findings

Fractal structure of Shenzhen's urban form is evident.

Fractal dimension growth follows a logistic function.

Urban growth peaked before 1986, nearing capacity.

Abstract

Fractal dimension curves of urban growth can be modeled with sigmoid functions, including logistic function and quadratic logistic function. Different types of logistic functions indicate different spatial dynamics. The fractal dimension curves of urban growth in western countries follows the common logistic function, while these curves of cities in northern China follows quadratic logistic function. Now we want to know whether all Chinese cities follow the same rules of urban evolution. This paper is devoted to exploring the fractals and fractal dimension properties of the city of Shenzhen in southern China. The urban region is divided into four subareas, ArcGIS technology, box-counting method is adopted to extract spatial datasets, and the least squares regression is employed to estimate fractal parameters. The results show that: (1) The urban form of Shenzhen city has clear fractal structure, but fractal dimension values of different subareas are different; (2) The fractal dimension growth curves of all the four study areas can only be modeled by the common logistic function, and the goodness of fit increases over time; (3) The peak of urban growth in Shenzhen had passed before 1986, the fractal dimension growth is approaching its maximum capacity. Conclusions can be reached that the urban form of Shenzhen bears characteristics of multifractals, the fractal structure has been becoming better gradually through self-organization, but its land resources are reaching the limits of growth. The fractal dimension curves of Shenzhen's urban growth are similar to those of European and American cities, but differ from those of the cities in northern China. This suggests that there is subtle different dynamic mechanisms of city development between northern and southern China.