Regional Flood Risk Projections under Climate Change

TL;DR

This paper presents an integrated modeling framework to project regional flood risks under climate change, highlighting increased hazards in Pennsylvania and emphasizing the importance of accounting for climate and model uncertainties.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive framework combining climate, hydrologic, and hydraulic models to assess flood risks and uncertainties at a regional scale.

Findings

Flood hazards in Pennsylvania are projected to increase.

Climate model uncertainty dominates flood risk projections.

Hydrologic and hydraulic uncertainties contribute significantly to total uncertainty.

Abstract

Flood-related risks to people and property are expected to increase in the future due to environmental and demographic changes. It is important to quantify and effectively communicate flood hazards and exposure to inform the design and implementation of flood risk management strategies. Here we develop an integrated modeling framework to assess projected changes in regional riverine flood inundation risks. The framework samples climate model outputs to force a hydrologic model and generate streamflow projections. Together with a statistical and hydraulic model, we use the projected streamflow to map the uncertainty of flood inundation projections for extreme flood events. We implement the framework for rivers across the state of Pennsylvania, United States. Our projections suggest that flood hazards and exposure across Pennsylvania are overall increasing with future climate change. Specific regions, including the main stem Susquehanna River, lower portion of the Allegheny basin and central portion of Delaware River basin, demonstrate higher flood inundation risks. In our analysis, the climate uncertainty dominates the overall uncertainty surrounding the flood inundation projection chain. The combined hydrologic and hydraulic uncertainties can account for as much as 37% of the total uncertainty. We discuss how this framework can provide regional and dynamic flood-risk assessments and help to inform the design of risk-management strategies.