To Act or not to Act? Political competition in the presence of a threat

TL;DR

This paper develops a model of political competition where incumbents decide whether to implement costly policies to prevent potential threats, analyzing strategic interactions under threat scenarios.

Contribution

It introduces a novel theoretical framework modeling incumbent decision-making in the presence of threats and costly policy measures.

Findings

Incumbents are more likely to act when threats are imminent.

Costly policies can serve as signals of commitment or strength.

The model predicts strategic delays or actions based on threat perception.

Abstract

We present a model of political competition in which an incumbent politician, may implement a costly policy to prevent a possible threat to, for example, national security or a natural disaster.