Cyclical phenomena in technological change

TL;DR

This paper analyzes cyclical patterns in technological change, focusing on the U.S. recorded music industry, revealing recurring fluctuations driven by radical innovations that influence economic and social transformations.

Contribution

It introduces an empirical analysis of technological cycles in the music industry, highlighting the role of radical innovations in driving these cycles.

Findings

Technological cycles have longer up-wave phases than down-wave phases.

Radical innovations are primary drivers of cyclical phenomena.

Technological change influences broader economic and social shifts.

Abstract

The process of technological change can be regarded as a non-deterministic system governed by factors of a cumulative nature that generate cyclical phenomena. In this context, the process of growth and decline of technology can be systematically analyzed to design best practices for technology management of firms and innovation policy of nations. In this perspective, this study focuses on the evolution of technologies in the U.S. recorded music industry. Empirical findings reveal that technological change in the sector under study here has recurring fluctuations of technological innovations. In particular, cycle of technology has up wave phase longer than down wave phase in the process of evolution in markets before it is substituted by a new technology. Results suggest that radical innovation is one of the main sources of cyclical phenomena for industrial and corporate change, and as a consequence, economic and social change.