Wound and episode level readmission risk or weeks to readmit: Why do patients get readmitted? How long does it take for a patient to get readmitted?

TL;DR

This study develops a data-driven model to predict patient re-admission risks and timing for wound care, aiming to reduce avoidable hospitalizations and healthcare costs.

Contribution

It introduces an extended autoprognosis model that accurately predicts re-admission risk and timing using wound care data, aiding preventive healthcare strategies.

Findings

Achieved 92% recall and precision in re-admission risk prediction.

Predicted discharge timing with an MAE of 2.3 weeks.

High accuracy for new patient risk classification.

Abstract

The Affordable care Act of 2010 had introduced Readmission reduction program in 2012 to reduce avoidable re-admissions to control rising healthcare costs. Wound care impacts 15 of medicare beneficiaries making it one of the major contributors of medicare health care cost. Health plans have been exploring proactive health care services that can focus on preventing wound recurrences and re-admissions to control the wound care costs. With rising costs of Wound care industry, it has become of paramount importance to reduce wound recurrences & patient re-admissions. What factors are responsible for a Wound to recur which ultimately lead to hospitalization or re-admission? Is there a way to identify the patients at risk of re-admission before the occurrence using data driven analysis? Patient re-admission risk management has become critical for patients suffering from chronic wounds such as diabetic ulcers, pressure ulcers, and vascular ulcers. Understanding the risk & the factors that cause patient readmission can help care providers and patients avoid wound recurrences. Our work focuses on identifying patients who are at high risk of re-admission & determining the time period with in which a patient might get re-admitted. Frequent re-admissions add financial stress to the patient & Health plan and deteriorate the quality of life of the patient. Having this information can allow a provider to set up preventive measures that can delay, if not prevent, patients' re-admission. On a combined wound & episode-level data set of patient's wound care information, our extended autoprognosis achieves a recall of 92 and a precision of 92 for the predicting a patient's re-admission risk. For new patient class, precision and recall are as high as 91 and 98, respectively. We are also able to predict the patient's discharge event for a re-admission event to occur through our model with a MAE of 2.3 weeks.