COVID-19: On the quarantine duration after short visits to high-risk regions

TL;DR

This study uses a Monte-Carlo method to estimate quarantine durations after short visits to high-risk regions, suggesting current policies may need to be reconsidered based on infection detection timing.

Contribution

It introduces a Monte-Carlo approach to determine quarantine durations based on infection detection timing distributions for travelers.

Findings

Approximately 8 days for 5% risk of post-quarantine infection

About 12 days for 1% risk

Around 16 days for 0.1% risk

Abstract

A simple Monte-Carlo method will be put forward herein, to enable the extraction of an estimate for the quarantine duration, applicable to visitors to high-risk regions. Results will be obtained on the basis of an analysis of the upper tail of the cumulative distribution function of the time span between the departure of the travellers from the place where the infection occurs and the time instant when COVID-19 infections may currently be detected. As expected, the quarantine duration is a decreasing function of the fraction of the infected travellers, which one is prepared to identify as `acceptable risk'. The analysis suggests that a maximal $5~\%$ risk (of new infections originating from subjects who become infective after their quarantine is lifted) may be associated with a minimal quarantine duration of about eight days, $1~\%$ with about twelve, and $0.1~\%$ with about sixteen. Unless the distribution of the duration of short (typically, up to three weeks) travels departs significantly from the shape assumed in this study, the results of the present analysis do not provide support for the plans to shorten the quarantine duration of about ten days to two weeks, which currently applies to travellers entering most European countries from regions with a high risk of infection.