Statistical Assessment of Safety Levels of Railway Operators

TL;DR

This paper evaluates a statistical method for assessing railway operator safety levels, proposing a more efficient rate-ratio test and demonstrating its advantages through theoretical analysis and simulation.

Contribution

It introduces a statistically efficient rate-ratio test for safety assessment and compares its performance to existing methods using theoretical and simulation analyses.

Findings

The proposed method has smaller variance than current ERA methods.

The rate-ratio test effectively distinguishes between different safety levels.

Simulation confirms the method's robustness and efficiency.

Abstract

Recently the European Union Agency for Railways (ERA) has received a mandate for 'the development of common safety methods for assessing the safety level and the safety performance of railway operators at national and Union level'. Currently, several methods are under development. It is of interest how a possible candidate would behave and what would be the advantages and disadvantages of a particular method. In this paper, we study a version of the procedure. On the one hand side we analyze it based on the theory of mathematical statistics. As a result, we present a statistically efficient method the rate-ratio test based on a quantity that has smaller variance than the quantity handled by the ERA. Then, we support the theoretical results with the help of a simple simulation study in order to estimate failure probabilities of the first and second kinds. We construct such alternative distributions which the decision procedure cannot distinguish. We will show that the use of procedures that are optimal in the sense of mathematical statistics combined with the use of a characteristics that has small spread, here the number of accidents, is advantageous.