Containing a pandemic: Nonpharmaceutical interventions and the "second wave"

TL;DR

This paper models the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19's second wave using advanced dynamical models, providing insights to optimize containment strategies and minimize social and economic costs.

Contribution

It combines a dynamical density functional theory model with an extended SIRD model to analyze intervention effects and predict second wave dynamics.

Findings

Different intervention thresholds lead to various pandemic phases.

Spatiotemporal simulations reveal conditions for second wave emergence.

Results inform public health policies for effective containment.

Abstract

In response to the worldwide outbreak of the coronavirus disease COVID-19, a variety of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as face masks and social distancing have been implemented. A careful assessment of the effects of such containment strategies is required to avoid exceeding social and economical costs as well as a dangerous "second wave" of the pandemic. In this work, we combine a recently developed dynamical density functional theory model and an extended SIRD model with hysteresis to study effects of various measures and strategies using realistic parameters. Depending on intervention thresholds, a variety of phases with different numbers of shutdowns and deaths are found. Spatiotemporal simulations provide further insights into the dynamics of a second wave. Our results are of crucial importance for public health policy.