HIV transmission in men who have sex with men in England: on track for elimination by 2030?
Francesco Brizzi, Paul J Birrell, Peter Kirwan, Dana Ogaz and, Alison E Brown, Valerie C Delpech, O Noel Gill, Daniela De Angelis

TL;DR
This study estimates a significant decline in HIV incidence among MSM in England starting in 2012/3, with projections suggesting that elimination could be achievable by 2030 through targeted policies, despite the decline beginning before PrEP implementation.
Contribution
The paper introduces a novel age-stratified back-calculation method to estimate HIV incidence and undiagnosed infections, providing detailed trends and projections for MSM in England.
Findings
HIV incidence in MSM declined from 2013 to 2018.
A 40% chance of achieving elimination by 2030 under current trends.
Steady decline observed across all age groups, especially 24-35.
Abstract
Background: After a decade of a treatment as prevention (TasP) strategy based on progressive HIV testing scale-up and earlier treatment, a reduction in the estimated number of new infections in men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) in England had yet to be identified by 2010. To achieve internationally agreed targets for HIV control and elimination, test-and-treat prevention efforts have been dramatically intensified over the period 2010-2015, and, from 2016, further strengthened by pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Methods: Application of a novel age-stratified back-calculation approach to data on new HIV diagnoses and CD4 count-at-diagnosis, enabled age-specific estimation of HIV incidence, undiagnosed infections and mean time-to-diagnosis across both the 2010-2015 and 2016-2018 periods. Estimated incidence trends were then extrapolated, to quantify the likelihood of achieving HIV…
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Taxonomy
TopicsHIV/AIDS Research and Interventions · HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk · Sex work and related issues
