Horizontal transport in oil-spill modeling

TL;DR

This paper discusses challenges in oil-spill trajectory modeling due to missing or inaccurate ocean current data and proposes advanced Lagrangian techniques and physical insights to improve prediction accuracy, demonstrated through case studies.

Contribution

It introduces the application of Lagrangian Coherent Structures and Objective Eulerian Coherent Structures to enhance oil-spill trajectory predictions despite velocity errors.

Findings

Lagrangian techniques can bypass localized velocity errors.

Objective Eulerian Coherent Structures predict transport patterns in imperfect data.

Physical understanding of ocean motion aids in identifying missing physics.

Abstract

Simulating oil transport in the ocean can be done successfully provided that accurate ocean currents and surface winds are available -- this is often too big of a challenge. Deficient ocean currents can sometimes be remediated by parameterizing missing physics -- this is often not enough. In this chapter, we focus on some of the main problems oil-spill modelers face, which is determining accurate trajectories when the velocity may be missing important physics, or when the velocity has localized errors that result in large trajectory errors. A foundation of physical mechanisms driving motion in the ocean may help identify currents lacking certain types of physics, and the remedy. Recent progress in our understanding of motion in the upper centimeters of the ocean supports unconventional parameterizations; we present as an example the 2003 Point Wells oil spill which had remained unexplained until recently. When the velocity realistically represents trajectory forcing mechanisms, advanced Lagrangian techniques that build on the theory of Lagrangian Coherent Structures can bypass localized velocity errors by identifying regions of attraction likely to dictate fluid deformation. The usefulness of Objective Eulerian Coherent Structures is demonstrated to the oil-spill modeling community by revisiting the 2010 Deepwater Horizon accident in the Gulf of Mexico and predicting a prominent transport pattern from an imperfect altimetry velocity eight days in advance.