Current observations are insufficient to confidently associate the binary black hole merger GW190521 with AGN J124942.3+344929

TL;DR

This paper critically re-evaluates the proposed association between the GW190521 black hole merger and the electromagnetic transient ZTF19abanrhr, concluding that current evidence is insufficient for a confident link, impacting future multi-messenger astronomy.

Contribution

It provides a re-analysis of the multi-messenger coincidence significance, showing the association is not strongly supported by current data.

Findings

Odds of a common source range between 1 and 12

Current evidence is insufficient for a confident association

Implications for future multi-messenger observations

Abstract

Recently, Graham et al. (2020) identified ZTF19abanrhr as a candidate electromagnetic counterpart to the binary black hole merger GW190521. The authors argue that the observations are consistent with a kicked binary black hole interacting with the accretion disk of the activate galactic nucleus AGN J124942.3+344929. If a real association (rather than happenstance), this has implications for the sources of LIGO/Virgo binary mergers, future prospects for electromagnetic counterparts, and measurements of the expansion rate of the Universe. In this Letter, we provide a re-analysis of the multi-messenger coincidence significance based on the localisation overlap and find that that the odds of a common source for GW190521 andZTF19abanrhr range between 1 and 12 depending on the waveform model used; we consider this insufficient evidence to warrant confidently associating GW190521 with ZTF19abanrhr.