A modified age-structured SIR model for COVID-19 type viruses

TL;DR

This paper introduces a modified age-structured SIR model for COVID-19 that incorporates social contact patterns and evaluates the impact of age-specific interventions, vaccination, and policy adaptations across different regions.

Contribution

It presents a novel age-structured SIR model that accounts for social contact patterns and evaluates age-specific measures and vaccination effects for COVID-19.

Findings

Population age-distribution significantly affects disease spread and mortality.

Age-targeted contact and treatment measures improve mitigation.

Relaxing restrictions in less vulnerable groups can be effective.

Abstract

We present a modified age-structured SIR model based on known patterns of social contact and distancing measures within Washington, USA. We find that population age-distribution has a significant effect on disease spread and mortality rate, and contribute to the efficacy of age-specific contact and treatment measures. We consider the effect of relaxing restrictions across less vulnerable age-brackets, comparing results across selected groups of varying population parameters. Moreover, we analyze the mitigating effects of vaccinations and examine the effectiveness of age-targeted distributions. Lastly, we explore how our model can applied to other states to reflect social-distancing policy based on different parameters and metrics.