Effects of winter climate on high speed passenger trains in Botnia-Atlantica region

TL;DR

This study analyzes how winter climate, especially atmospheric icing, affects high-speed train performance in Sweden's Botnia-Atlantica region using operational and weather simulation data, revealing significant climate impacts.

Contribution

It introduces a combined analysis of train delays and weather data, applying Cox and Markov models to quantify climate effects on train performance.

Findings

Temperature and humidity significantly influence train delays.

Weather factors affect transition probabilities between delayed and on-time states.

Climate impacts are quantifiable using statistical models.

Abstract

Harsh winter climate can cause various problems for both public and private sectors in Sweden, especially in the northern part for railway industry. To have a better understanding of winter climate impacts, this study investigates effects of the winter climate including atmospheric icing on the performance of high speed passenger trains in the Botnia-Atlantica region. The investigation is done with train operational data together with simulated weather data from the Weather Research and Forecast model over January - February 2017. Two different measurements of the train performance are analysed. One is cumulative delay which measures the increment in delay in terms of running time within two consecutive measuring spots, the other is current delay which is the delay in terms of arrival time at each measuring spot compared to the schedule. Cumulative delay is investigated through a Cox model and the current delay is studied using a Markov chain model. The results show that the weather factors have impacts on the train performance. Therein temperature and humidity have significant impacts on both the occurrence of cumulative delay and the transition probabilities between (current) delayed and non-delayed states.