Use of Bayesian Network characteristics to link project management maturity and risk of project overcost

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Bayesian network-based method to quantify how project management maturity influences the risk of project overcost, using expert knowledge and empirical data.

Contribution

It develops a novel framework linking project management maturity to overcost risk through Bayesian network characteristics, filling a gap in existing models.

Findings

Method successfully estimates impact of maturity on overcost risk

Framework validated with an industrial case study

Provides a new tool for risk assessment in project management

Abstract

The project management field has the imperative to increase the project probability of success. Experts have developed several project management maturity models to assets and improve the project outcome. However, the current literature lacks of models allowing correlating the measured maturity and the expected probability of success. This paper uses the characteristics of Bayesian networks to formalize experts' knowledge and to extract knowledge from a project overcost database. It develops a method to estimate the impact of project management maturity on the risk of project overcost. A general framework is presented. An industrial case is used to illustrate the application of the method.