Estimating the treatment effect of the juvenile stay-at-home order on SARS-CoV-2 infection spread in Saline County, Arkansas

TL;DR

This study assesses the impact of a juvenile stay-at-home order in Saline County, Arkansas, finding it significantly reduced COVID-19 infection growth using Difference-in-Differences and Synthetic Control methods.

Contribution

It provides causal evidence of the effectiveness of juvenile stay-at-home orders in controlling COVID-19 spread, employing robust counterfactual estimation techniques.

Findings

Stay-at-home order significantly reduced infection growth rate.

Both methodologies confirmed the policy's effectiveness.

Contradicts some prior studies questioning SAHO impact.

Abstract

We investigate the treatment effect of the juvenile stay-at-home order (JSAHO) adopted in Saline County, Arkansas, from April 6 to May 7, in mitigating the growth of SARS-CoV-2 infection rates. To estimate the counterfactual control outcome for Saline County, we apply Difference-in-Differences and Synthetic Control design methodologies. Both approaches show that stay-at-home order (SAHO) significantly reduced the growth rate of the infections in Saline County during the period the policy was in effect, contrary to some of the findings in the literature that cast doubt on the general causal impact of SAHO with narrower scopes.