Assessing the contagiousness of mass shootings with nonparametric Hawkes processes

TL;DR

This paper investigates whether mass shootings in the US are contagious events by applying nonparametric Hawkes processes, demonstrating the utility of these models in understanding and analyzing the spread of such violence.

Contribution

It introduces the application of nonparametric Hawkes processes to assess the contagiousness of mass shootings, offering a novel methodological approach in this context.

Findings

Evidence suggests some level of contagiousness in mass shootings.

Nonparametric Hawkes models effectively capture event clustering.

Highlights benefits of flexible point process models for epidemiological analysis.

Abstract

Gun violence and mass shootings are high-profile epidemiological issues facing the United States with questions regarding their contagiousness gaining prevalence in news media. Through the use of nonparametric Hawkes processes, we examine the evidence for the existence of contagiousness within a catalog of mass shootings and highlight the broader benefits of using such nonparametric point process models in modeling the occurrence of such events.