A multi-layer model for long-term KPI alignment forecasts for the air transportation system

TL;DR

This paper introduces a comprehensive agent-based simulation model for European air traffic management, projecting long-term trends in emissions, delays, and operational buffers for 2035 and 2050.

Contribution

It presents a novel multi-layer, agent-driven microscopic model for long-term KPI forecasting in air transportation systems, integrating stakeholder interactions and passenger itineraries.

Findings

Emissions are projected to change significantly by 2035 and 2050.

Delay reduction trends are identified in the simulation.

Airline schedule buffers are expected to increase.

Abstract

This article presents a new, holistic model for the air traffic management system, built during the Vista project. The model is an agent-driven simulator, featuring various stakeholders such as the Network Manager and airlines. It is a microscopic model based on individual passenger itineraries in Europe during one day of operations. The article focuses on the technical description of the model, including data and calibration issues, and presents selected key results for 2035 and 2050. In particular, we show clear trends regarding emissions, delay reduction, uncertainty, and increasing airline schedule buffers.