Coupled effects of epidemic information and risk awareness on contagion

TL;DR

This paper investigates how delayed epidemic information and individual risk awareness influence contagion dynamics across populations with different movement patterns, revealing that timely info and high sensitivity can significantly curb epidemic spread.

Contribution

It introduces a coupled SIS model incorporating delayed information and self-restricted travel, providing new insights into epidemic control strategies under various movement behaviors.

Findings

Delayed information has no effect in local movement populations.

High sensitivity to epidemic info suppresses spread.

Timely info and sensitivity are crucial in mixed movement populations.

Abstract

By incorporating delayed epidemic information and self-restricted travel behavior into the SIS model, we have investigated the coupled effects of timely and accurate epidemic information and people's sensitivity to the epidemic information on contagion. In the population with only local random movement, whether the epidemic information is delayed or not has no effect on the spread of the epidemic. People's high sensitivity to the epidemic information leads to their risk aversion behavior and the spread of the epidemic is suppressed. In the population with only global person-to-person movement, timely and accurate epidemic information helps an individual cut off the connections with the infected in time and the epidemic is brought under control in no time. A delay in the epidemic information leads to an individual's misjudgment of who has been infected and who has not, which in turn leads to rapid progress and a higher peak of the epidemic. In the population with coexistence of local and global movement, timely and accurate epidemic information and people's high sensitivity to the epidemic information play an important role in curbing the epidemic. A theoretical analysis indicates that people's misjudgment caused by the delayed epidemic information leads to a higher encounter probability between the susceptible and the infected and people's self-restricted travel behavior helps reduce such an encounter probability. A functional relation between the ratio of infected individuals and the susceptible-infected encounter probability has been found.