Deducing the reliability of relative helicities from nonlinear force-free coronal models

TL;DR

This study assesses the reliability of relative magnetic helicity estimates in solar active regions using nonlinear force-free models, proposing improved criteria for model selection and uncertainty estimation to better predict eruptive potential.

Contribution

It introduces a combined criterion involving non-solenoidal energy contributions for selecting high-quality models and provides a methodology for estimating uncertainty in helicity calculations.

Findings

Multiple NLFF models improve helicity estimate reliability.

Using combined criteria reduces model selection bias.

Uncertainty can be quantified through model spread.

Abstract

We study the relative helicity of active region (AR) NOAA~12673 during a ten-hour time interval centered around a preceding X2.2 flare (SOL2017-09-06T08:57) and also including an eruptive X9.3 flare that occurred three hours later (SOL2017-09-06T11:53). In particular, we aim for a reliable estimate of the normalized self-helicity of the current-carrying magnetic field, the so-called helicity ratio $|H_{\mathrm{J}}|/|H_{\mathcal{V}}|$, a promising candidate to quantity the eruptive potential of solar ARs. Using SDO/HMI vector magnetic field data as an input, we employ nonlinear force-free (NLFF) coronal magnetic field models using an optimization approach. The corresponding relative helicity, and related quantities, are computed using a finite-volume method. From multiple time series of NLFF models based on different choices of free model parameters, we are able to assess the spread of $|H_{\mathrm{J}}|/|H_{\mathcal{V}}|$, and to estimate its uncertainty. In comparison to earlier works, which identified the non-solenoidal contribution to the total magnetic energy, $E_{\rm div}/E$, as selection criterion regarding the required solenoidal quality of magnetic field models for subsequent relative helicity analysis, we propose to use in addition the non-solenoidal contribution to the free magnetic energy, $|E_{\rm mix}|/E_{\mathrm{J,s}}$. As a recipe for a reliable estimate of the relative magnetic helicity (and related quantities), we recommend to employ multiple NLFF models based on different combinations of free model parameters, to retain only those that exhibit smallest values of both $E_{\rm div}/E$ and $|E_{\rm mix}|/E_{\mathrm{J,s}}$ at a certain time instant, to subsequently compute mean estimates, and to use the spread of the individually contributing values as an indication for the uncertainty.