Information flow in political elections: a stochastic perspective

TL;DR

This paper models how a political candidate's communication clarity impacts voter perception using stochastic differential equations, revealing that vagueness can sometimes be advantageous in elections.

Contribution

It introduces a novel stochastic model employing Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes to analyze political communication strategies.

Findings

Vagueness in candidate stance can have strategic advantages.

The model quantifies the effects of communication clarity on voter perception.

Counterintuitive benefits of ambiguity are demonstrated.

Abstract

Often times, a candidate's attractiveness is directly associated with his clear ideologies and opinions on various policies and social issues. Using the ideas of stochastic differential equations and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process, we develop a phenomenological model to understand the effect of (un)clearly communicating a candidate's stance on policies to the voting public. We will show that, counter intuitively, there are quantifiable advantages to be vague on one's stance.