The 2020 Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19

TL;DR

This study analyzes the impact of the 2020 Sturgis Motorcycle Rally on COVID-19 spread using cell phone data, finding that higher attendance correlated with increased case growth in the following weeks.

Contribution

It provides empirical evidence linking large public gatherings to COVID-19 case increases using novel cell phone tracking data.

Findings

A one standard deviation increase in attendance led to a 1.1 percentage point rise in case growth.

The study quantifies the impact of mass gatherings on disease transmission.

Uses anonymous cell phone data to trace attendee origins and effects.

Abstract

The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally that took place from August 7-16 was one of the largest public gatherings since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak. Over 460,000 visitors from across the United States travelled to Sturgis, South Dakota to attend the ten day event. Using anonymous cell phone tracking data we identify the home counties of visitors to the rally and examine the impact of the rally on the spread of COVID-19. Our baseline estimate suggests a one standard deviation increase in Sturgis attendance increased COVID-19 case growth by 1.1pp in the weeks after the rally.