Towards forecast techniques for business analysts of large commercial data sets using matrix factorization methods

TL;DR

This paper introduces a matrix completion method for short-term demand forecasting in large commercial datasets, demonstrating improved accuracy and accessibility for business analysts without requiring advanced technical skills.

Contribution

It presents a novel matrix completion approach for hierarchical multivariate time series forecasting tailored for business applications, outperforming existing methods.

Findings

Outperforms state-of-the-art forecasting techniques

Accessible to non-technical business users

Effective for large, hierarchical commercial datasets

Abstract

This research article suggests that there are significant benefits in exposing demand planners to forecasting methods using matrix completion techniques. This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of the field of forecasting with multivariate time series prediction by focusing on the dimension of large commercial data sets with hierarchies. This research highlights that there has neither been sufficient academic research in this sub-field nor dissemination among practitioners in the business sector. This study seeks to innovate by presenting a matrix completion method for short-term demand forecast of time series data on relevant commercial problems. Albeit computing intensive, this method outperforms the state of the art while remaining accessible to business users. The object of research is matrix completion for time series in a big data context within the industry. The subject of the research is forecasting product demand using techniques for multivariate hierarchical time series prediction that are both precise and accessible to non-technical business experts. Apart from a methodological innovation, this research seeks to introduce practitioners to novel methods for hierarchical multivariate time series prediction. The research outcome is of interest for organizations requiring precise forecasts yet lacking the appropriate human capital to develop them.