Preventing epidemics by wearing masks: An application to COVID-19

TL;DR

This paper models the impact of widespread mask-wearing on COVID-19 epidemic control using a SEIR model, deriving critical mask usage thresholds and applying findings to real-world data from multiple countries.

Contribution

It introduces a SEIR model incorporating mask usage, providing a criterion and critical percentage of mask-wearers needed to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks.

Findings

Derived the basic reproductive number considering mask use.

Established a threshold for mask adoption to prevent epidemics.

Applied model to real data from US, Brazil, and Italy.

Abstract

The goal of this work is to consider widespread use of face masks as a non-pharmaceutical control strategy for the Covid-19 pandemic. A SEIR model that divides the population into individuals that wear masks and those that do not is considered. After calculating the basic reproductive number by a next generation approach, a criterion for determining when an epidemic can be prevented by the use of masks only and the critical percentage of mask users for disease prevention in the population are derived. The results are then applied to real world data from the United States, Brazil and Italy.